Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect USDJPY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is < -0.4% Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Jan 00:30	16 Dec 00:30
14 Oct 23:30	17 Aug 22:30
14 Apr 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).