Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect a 15 pip movement on USDJPY within 4 hours following the event release at 20 Oct 10:50 GMT+11. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 20 Oct 10:50 GMT+11 if the released value is > ¥-519.2B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 May 09:50	19 Apr 09:50
17 Feb 10:50	18 Nov 10:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).