20 pip movement on AUDUSD expected

We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours. Based on these past United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence news events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < -42. A price movement of 20 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Aug 23:01
23 Jun 23:01
19 May 23:01
22 Apr 02:10
21 Jan 00:01
21 Oct 23:01