20 pip movement on NZDUSD expected

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect a 20 pip movement on NZDUSD within 2 hours following the event release at 06 Oct 00:30 UTC. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 06 Oct 00:30 UTC if the released value is > A$5.154B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Jun 01:30
09 Jan 00:30
07 Nov 00:30