Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect a 354 pip movement on GBPUSD within 48 hours following the event release at 2023-05-04 22:15. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 2023-05-04 22:15 if the released value is = 3.75%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Feb 00:15	16 Dec 00:15
27 Oct 23:15	09 Jun 21:45
14 Apr 21:45	10 Mar 23:45
03 Feb 23:45	16 Dec 23:45
28 Oct 22:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).