Based on past Australia Balance of Trade news events there is a 88.89% chance of USDJPY trending upwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > A$14.5B. A price movement of 36 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Aug 11:30	07 Jul 11:30
02 Jun 11:30	05 May 11:30
03 Mar 11:30	02 Dec 11:30
04 Nov 11:30	05 Oct 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).