66.67% probability that EURUSD may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is < A$ 4.4B Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

07 Jan 11:30
06 Oct 11:30
03 Sep 11:30
06 Feb 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).