66.67% probability that EURUSD may trend downwards right now

We expect a $520 movement on EURUSD within the next 4 hours. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the Retail Sales MoM events in United States release because the released value is < 0.2%. A price movement of 52 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Jun 22:30
14 Apr 22:30
15 Jan 00:30
16 Dec 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).