70% probability that USDJPY may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 New Home Sales events in United States, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 70% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > 0.995M

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

27 Oct 01:00
25 Sep 00:00
26 Aug 00:00
25 Jul 00:00
27 May 00:00
24 Apr 00:00
27 Feb 02:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).