71.43% probability that AUDUSD may trend downwards right now

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for the next 48 hours. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. This may happen because the released value is > £-11.5B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

11 Feb 18:00
14 Jan 18:00
10 Dec 18:00
11 Jun 16:00
12 May 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).