71.43% probability that USDCAD may trend downwards right now

We expect a $367 movement on USDCAD within the next 4 hours. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 4 hours following the Ifo Business Climate events in Germany release because the released value is < 87. A price movement of 47 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

25 Jul 18:00
25 Mar 20:00
24 Nov 20:00
24 Sep 18:00
25 Aug 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).