72.73% probability that USDCAD may trend downwards right now

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards for the next 12 hours. Based on these past events there is a 72.73% chance of this. This may happen because the released value is > €18.2B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Mar 18:00
09 Dec 18:00
10 Oct 17:00
09 Sep 16:00
09 Aug 16:00
07 Jun 16:00
10 May 16:00
08 Apr 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).