75% probability that GBPUSD may trend upwards

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect GBPUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > £-1.9B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 Dec 18:00
11 Nov 18:00
12 Sep 16:00
11 Apr 16:00
11 Feb 18:00
14 Jan 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).