75% probability that USDCHF may trend downwards right now

We expect a $186 movement on USDCHF within the next 4 hours. We expect USDCHF to trend downwards 4 hours following the Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan release because the released value is > 2.6%. A price movement of 18 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Jun 09:30
20 May 09:30
21 Jan 10:30
24 Dec 10:30
22 Oct 10:30
20 Jul 09:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).