75% probability that USDJPY may trend upwards right now

We expect USDJPY to trend upwards for the next 2 hours. Based on these past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < ¥-2398.2B. A price movement of 45 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Jun 23:50
19 Apr 23:50
15 Mar 23:50
16 Feb 23:50
19 Oct 23:50
15 Sep 23:50