77.78% probability that USDCHF may trend downwards right now

We expect USDCHF to trend downwards for the next 4 hours. Based on these past United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence news events there is a 77.78% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < -42. A price movement of 21 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Jun 09:01
22 Apr 12:10
25 Mar 11:01
25 Feb 11:01
21 Jan 11:01
22 Oct 10:01
20 Aug 09:01

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).