We expect USDJPY to trend upwards for the next 12 hours. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < 0.1%. A price movement of 79 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Apr 22:30	16 Mar 23:30
15 Jan 00:30	16 Dec 00:30
17 Aug 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).