80% probability that AUDUSD may trend upwards

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United States, we expect AUDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 2023-04-05 22:30 if the released value is < $-69B. A price movement of 19 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Nov 23:30
07 Sep 22:30
07 Jul 22:30
04 May 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).