80% probability that EURUSD may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 Non Farm Payrolls events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > 700K

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Apr 12:30
05 Mar 13:30
07 Aug 12:30
02 Jul 12:30