80% probability that EURUSD may trend downwards right now

We expect a $850 movement on EURUSD within the next 12 hours. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the Existing Home Sales events in United States release because the released value is > 4.7M. A price movement of 85 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

22 Sep 00:00
22 Jun 00:00
23 Nov 02:00
22 Oct 01:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).