80% probability that GBPUSD may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence events in Japan, we expect a 135 pip movement on GBPUSD within 12 hours following the event release at 2023-04-10 15:00. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 2023-04-10 15:00 if the released value is > 31.9

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

31 Jan 16:00
05 Jan 16:00
31 Aug 15:00
02 May 15:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).