80% probability that NZDUSD may trend downwards right now

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen because the released value is > A$10.45B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Jun 01:30
04 Feb 00:30
03 Dec 00:30
05 Nov 00:30