Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect USDJPY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is < 5% Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 May 22:30	15 Apr 22:30
17 Mar 23:30	16 Oct 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).