87.5% probability that GBPUSD may trend downwards

Based on the last 12 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 87.5% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > 61

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Feb 02:00
04 Dec 02:00
04 Nov 01:00
06 Oct 01:00
04 Sep 00:00
05 Aug 00:00
06 Apr 00:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).