Based on past Australia Balance of Trade news events there is a 87.5% chance of GBPUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > A$10.725B. A price movement of 26 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Jun 11:30	05 May 11:30
03 Mar 11:30	02 Dec 11:30
04 Nov 11:30	05 Oct 11:30
05 Aug 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).