Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 85.71% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 05 Mar 11:30 if the released value is > A$4.8B. A price movement of 193 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Jan 11:30	07 Nov 11:30
06 Aug 11:30	03 Jul 11:30
07 May 11:30	03 Apr 11:30
07 Mar 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).