Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 87.5% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 02 Dec 11:30 if the released value is > A$11B. A price movement of 78 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Nov 11:30	05 Oct 11:30
05 Aug 11:30	03 Jun 11:30
04 Mar 11:30	04 Feb 11:30
03 Dec 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).