Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 04 Mar 11:30 if the released value is > A$6.5B. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Dec 11:30	04 Jun 11:30
07 May 11:30	07 Apr 11:30
05 Mar 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).