Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect GBPUSD to trend upwards. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards for 12 hours because the released value is > A$7.9B. A price movement of 101 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Mar 11:30	03 Dec 11:30
05 Nov 11:30	04 Jun 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).