Based on the last 12 Employment Change events in Australia, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 19 Aug 11:30 if the released value is > -46.2K. A price movement of 29 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Apr 11:30	18 Mar 11:30
19 Nov 11:30	15 Oct 11:30
17 Sep 11:30	13 Aug 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).