Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 10 Mar 11:30 if the released value is > -2. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 Nov 11:30

13 Aug 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).