Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 14 Jul 11:30 if the released value is > -15. A price movement of 65 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Jun 11:30	12 Nov 11:30
13 Aug 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).