Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 85.71% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 12 Oct 11:30 if the released value is > -2. A price movement of 67 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Sep 11:30	10 May 11:30
09 Mar 11:30	09 Feb 11:30
08 Dec 11:30	05 Oct 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).