Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in Australia, we expect EURUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 04 Nov 11:30 if the released value is < -1.5%. A price movement of 98 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

06 Mar 11:30	06 Feb 11:30
05 Dec 11:30	04 Nov 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).