Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Canada, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 15 Sep 22:30 if the released value is > 3.9%. A price movement of 23 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Aug 22:30	16 Jun 22:30
19 May 22:30	18 Feb 00:30
17 Dec 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).