Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Canada, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards for 48 hours because the released value is > 4.3%. A price movement of 244 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Sep 22:30	18 Aug 22:30
16 Jun 22:30	17 Dec 00:30
21 Oct 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).