Based on past Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision news events there is a 72.73% chance of USDCAD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is = 2.5%. A price movement of 283 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

27 Oct 23:15	09 Jun 21:45
14 Apr 21:45	03 Feb 23:45
16 Dec 23:45	28 Oct 22:45
22 Jul 21:45	10 Jun 21:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).