Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 30 Apr 21:45 if the released value is = 0%. A price movement of 124 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 Mar 23:45	23 Jan 23:45
12 Dec 23:45	24 Oct 22:45
25 Jul 21:45	10 Apr 21:45
07 Mar 23:45	24 Jan 23:45
13 Dec 23:45	25 Oct 22:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).