Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect USDJPY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 22 Jul 21:45 if the released value is = 0%. A price movement of 124 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Jun 21:45	22 Apr 21:45
21 Jan 23:45	29 Oct 23:45
10 Sep 21:45	04 Jun 21:45
30 Apr 21:45	12 Mar 23:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).