Based on the last 12 Unemployment Rate events in Euro Area, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 10 Jan 21:00 if the released value is = 7.2%. A price movement of 11 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Dec 21:00	30 Sep 19:00
01 Sep 19:00	01 Feb 21:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).