Based on the last 12 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est events in France, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards for 4 hours because the released value is > 0.5%. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 Oct 16:30	30 Jul 15:30
29 Jan 17:30	30 Oct 17:30
30 Oct 17:30	30 Jan 17:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).