Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 09 Apr 16:00 if the released value is > €21.5B. A price movement of 86 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Mar 18:00	09 Nov 18:00
08 May 16:00	09 Apr 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).