Based on the last 12 Ifo Business Climate events in Germany, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards for 12 hours because the released value is > 98.2. A price movement of 32 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

26 Mar 20:00	22 Feb 20:00
24 Nov 20:00	25 Aug 18:00
27 Jul 18:00	25 May 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).