Based on the last 12 Ifo Business Climate events in Germany, we expect AUDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 26 Jul 18:00 if the released value is > 102.1. A price movement of 72 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Jun 18:00	26 Mar 20:00
22 Feb 20:00	24 Nov 20:00
25 Aug 18:00	27 Jul 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).