Based on the last 12 Ifo Business Climate events in Germany, we expect AUDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 25 Aug 18:00 if the released value is > 92.2. A price movement of 15 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

27 Jul 18:00	25 May 18:00
24 Feb 20:00	18 Dec 20:00
24 Sep 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).