Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY Prel events in Germany, we expect GBPUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 29 Feb 00:00 if the released value is < 1.7%. A price movement of 21 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

31 May 22:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).