Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY Prel events in Germany, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 28 May 22:00 if the released value is = 0.6%. A price movement of 81 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

30 Mar 23:00	29 Feb 00:00
31 Jan 00:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).