Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY Prel events in Germany, we expect USDCHF to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 2023-03-30 23:00 if the released value is > 7.3%. A price movement of 78 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

28 Oct 23:00	29 Sep 22:00
28 Jul 22:00	30 May 22:00
28 Apr 22:00	30 Mar 23:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).