Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 21 Feb 19:30 if the released value is > 59.5. A price movement of 83 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Jan 19:30	16 Dec 19:30
23 Nov 19:30	22 Oct 18:30
24 Mar 19:30	19 Feb 19:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).