Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 22 Apr 17:30 if the released value is < 54.5. A price movement of 73 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Sep 17:30	23 Aug 17:30
21 May 17:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).